A line of 100 airline passengers is waiting to
board a plane. they each hold a ticket to one of the 100 seats on that
flight. (for convenience, let’s say that the nth passenger in line has a
ticket for the seat number n.)
Unfortunately, the first person in line is crazy, and will ignore the seat
number on their ticket, picking a random seat to occupy. all of the other
passengers are quite normal, and will go to their proper seat unless it is
already occupied. if it is occupied, they will then find a free seat to sit
in, at random.
What is the probability that the last (100th) person to board the plane will
sit in his proper seat (#100)?
Hint:
One of the methods is to use induction. Try for 2 seats, 3 seats, 4 seats and then build your argument.
Solution:
The jumping stops if someone sits on the crazy man’s seat before the 100th persons, hence, the 100th will sit in his/her seat for sure then. Similarly, if anyone sits on the 100th passengers seat at any point, then he/she won’t get to sit his/her seat for sure. If at any point someone picks a random seat other than #1 or #100, then the jumping is postponed till that seat number is reached. At any jumping point there is a equal probability that seats #1 or #100 will be chosen (other choices will just delay the problem till later down the line). By symmetry, the probability of the 100th passenger sitting in their seat is 50-50, since at all jump points there’s an equal probability of choosing seats #1 or 100.